Analyzing Notre Dame's Playoff Hopes / by Queens Sports Analytics Organization

Author: Heath McKeown

Graphics: Liban Rizvi

Notre Dame’s Playoff Hopes:

As the 2024 college football season continues, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can find themselves in a good position to make the College Football Playoff. With a very balanced mix of player talent and strategic coaching, Notre Dame’s playoff chances keep growing and are increasingly becoming a hot topic of discussion. Despite the early loss at the start of the season, the Fighting Irish have bounced back with some good victories as they are on a 7-game win streak since week 3. The path to the playoffs is there for the Irish but they still have 3 more games and 2 tougher matchups. As the Irish gear up for the playoffs, all eyes will be on the offense and defense to see if they can continue to perform in key times to clinch a playoff berth.

Riley Leonard and Marcus Freeman:

Riley Leonard has been a key factor in Notre Dame’s offensive success this 2024 season as he has quickly established himself as one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in college football.

Leonard can make big plays in the air, but he also makes huge plays on the ground. His poise under pressure and his ability to quickly read the defence has helped Notre Dame’s offence stay in rhythm. Alongside Riley, Marcus Freeman’s coaching has been crucial to Notre Dame’s success. Freeman is in his second season as head coach of The Fighting Irish. He has established a balance of a strong defensive identity and an efficient offense. Freeman’s commitment to improving Leonard's skills will be key to the success of the offense. Freeman’s ability to adjust on the fly, and make game-time decisions that often tend to shift momentum in the Irish’s favour, shows how he is a great and improving coach.

Notre Dame Offense:

Notre Dame’s offense in the 2024 season has a well-balanced unit, with both the running and passing games leading to the team's success. One of the main keys to success within this offense is Notre Dame’s running back Jeremiyah Love who is averaging around 64 rush yards per game. Love’s ability to consistently gain yards has helped establish a strong run-first offense for the Irish, allowing them to control the clock and wear down the defenses. As a team, Notre Dame has averaged 214 rush yards per game, showing that their ground game dominates. Again, Riley Leonard has been a key factor to Notre Dame’s offense, as he is a dual-threat quarterback. Leonard is averaging just about 67 rush yards per game, adding a dynamic element to his game making it hard to defend. In addition to Leonards's rush yards, his passing game has been solid as well as he averages approximately 197 pass yards per game. With the combination of ground and air production, The Fighting Irish remain one of the most balanced teams in the country.

Notre Dame Defence:

Notre Dame’s defence has been a key factor to their strong 2024 season, with The Fighting Irish ranking among the top defenses in the nation. The defence is currently ranked 6th, showing their ability to limit the yards of the opposition and control the game on that end. Their success mainly comes from the very strong secondary, which ranks 2nd in passing defense, allowing just around 151 pass yards per game and allowing 6 passing touchdowns through ten games. Notre Dame’s ability to shut down quarterbacks has been consistent all season, forcing teams to stop passing or struggle throughout the air. Notre Dame has been dominant in preventing points as they rank 3rd in scoring defence. This defence can limit touchdowns and field goals keeping the other teams off the scoreboard. The Irish have excelled in the red-zone this season, ranking 5th nationally, which is crucial to winning games. Notre Dame’s third-down efficiency is ranked 6th. This stat shows how their defense can get stops and force punts.

 

The defence has some star players as well which contributes to the success. Safety Xavier Watts has been amazing this season, leading the team with 4 interceptions, while Adon Shuler has also been very impactful with his 3 interceptions, one of them being a pick-six. These players have been very good at defending the pass and have been able to create game-changing plays that allowed Notre Dame to control the momentum of the game. The defence is missing one of their stars, Benjamin Morrison to injury. Despite this, the rest of the team has stepped up and has proven they are a great defense.

Army Game:

We are now in week 13 of college football and Notre Dame has two more big games that they need to win if they want to see the playoffs. In week 13, the Fighting Irish are set to face Army who is 9-0. This upcoming game presents a challenge for the Irish, who will need a big performance on both sides of the ball to keep the playoff dreams alive. Army is coming into this game with one of the best defensive units in the nation, ranking fifth in total defense, fourth in rush defense, second in scoring defense, and second in red zone defense. Moreover, Army ranks first in rushing offense, and sixth in red zone offense, making it very clear that they are solid on both sides of the ball. Army’s defense is especially good against the run, and their ability to restrain offences while controlling the clock with their ground game will put Notre Dame’s offence and defence to the test.

Notre Dame’s offence will need a big performance to get through the Army defence. The Irish have a strong run game as well with Love and Leonard being able to create big plays, so the Irish offense will look to maintain a rhythm on the ground. Riley Leonard and Jeremyiah Love need to be at their best, moving the ball effectively and avoiding mistakes at all costs.

The real battle in this game will be on the defensive side of the ball. Army’s quarterback, Bryson Daily, who has 644 pass yards and 1,062 rushing yards, is a massive threat in the triple option that Army loves to run. Army’s offence plays the triple option out of flexbone and tends to use the midline option the most, where Bryson Daily can give the ball to the fullback, keep the ball, or pitch it to the slot back. To add on, Army’s leading running back has 856 rushing yards on 128 carries, adding another threat to their ground game. Notre Dame’s defence will need to be disciplined, especially since their rushing defence is not even top ten nationally. The Irish will need to execute a game plan to stop Army’s run-heavy offense and force Army into situations where they need to pass the ball which will benefit The Fighting Irish’s second-ranked pass defence. With both teams being very good defensively, this top 25 matchup will test Notre Dame’s ability to play in big games and execute for a tough win.

USC Game:

The matchup between Notre Dame and USC is set to be an exciting game where both teams have big playmakers. USC’s quarterback, Miller Moss, has passed for 2,555 yards so far this season, showing his ability to pass excellently. Adding on, USC’s running back has rushed for 1,024 yards this season, ranking him 18th nationally among running backs. This dual threat makes the USC offense unpredictable and a tough matchup for any defense. Despite their offence, USC has struggled since joining the Big Ten, where they sit with a 5-5 overall record and a 3-5 conference record. The USC defense has been weak, allowing teams to put up large numbers on them. For Notre Dame, the key factor in this matchup will be limiting USC’s explosive offensive plays. The Irish will need to focus on limiting Miller Moss and Woody Marks to achieve a victory.

Playoff Chances

Notre Dame’s playoff chances under the new 12-team format heavily depend on their last two games. As an independent program, Notre Dame does not participate in a conference and because of this, they can’t get an automatic playoff berth, which is reserved for the top six highest-ranked conference champions. Notre Dame will now need to compete for one of the other six spots. Notre Dame is ranked 6th in the CFB rankings but is seeded 8th because the top four seeds are for conference champions and the other high-ranked champions get priority in seeding.

Notre Dame’s position is risky compared to teams in the conference because the Irish do not have the conference championship game to add to their resume. Their loss to Northern Illinois in the second week of the season weakened their CFB case, and another loss could put them out of the top 12. Without a conference title that would help strengthen their case, their playoff chances depend on how well they do in the regular season. The Fighting Irish need to win their next two games to maintain their ranking and to ensure that they are in the playoff conversation. If they lose a game or do not play as well, other teams could have the chance to jump above the Irish in the rankings.

 

The competition for the spots is fierce, and Notre Dame needs to be able to contend with the teams that can use their conference championship games to secure higher rankings. A loss in either the Army or USC game would leave the Fighting Irish in a vulnerable position. So, to make the College Football Playoffs, Notre Dame needs to play very well to maintain their spot.