By Owen Kewell and Scott Schiffner
The calm before the storm.
The brackets have been setup, the matchup strategies developed, and the razors hidden away. For the first time since June, playoff hockey is here. We are mere hours from the puck drop that’ll kick off the 2017-18 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the starting pistol for a two-month long marathon where only one team can cross the finish line. In anticipation of this, we at the Queen’s Sports Analytics Organization decided to tee up the matchups featuring Canadian teams. We start with the Winnipeg Jets, who will play host to the Minnesota Wild on Wednesday night. The first round playoff series between the Central division rival Winnipeg Jets (2nd, 52-20-10) and the Minnesota Wild (3rd, 45-26-11) is an exciting matchup that is sure to feature a high level of speed, talent, and physicality from both sides. Both squads have enjoyed productive seasons, with the Jets posting the best record of any Canadian team, finishing with 114 points.
Offensive Matchup
Winnipeg enters the series with the reputation of having one of the most lethal forward groups in the league. Lead by a rejuvenated Blake Wheeler (91 points) and 44 goals from sophomore winger Patrik Laine, the Jets possess high-end offensive firepower that has torched the league for the better part of the season. Minnesota, meanwhile, enjoyed strong seasons from Eric Staal (76 points), Mikael Granlund (67 points) and Jason Zucker (64 points). Let’s take a quick look at some summary statistics from the regular season.
Stats from Corsica.hockey
The Jets scored 23 more goals than the Wild over the season, though much of this can be explained by their superior power play. Jets skaters had a higher shooting percentage, though the difference is too small to reasonably infer superior shooting ability. The Jets outperformed the Wild at generating shot attempts and scoring chances, though the Wild were able to create more high-danger scoring chances. While individual point totals suggest Winnipeg has more high-end forwards, we can examine depth charts to clarify the picture.
The graphic above shows the current depth charts (courtesy of Daily Faceoff) and each player’s rank among NHL forwards in even-strength primary points per 60 minutes. Here we confirm our belief that Winnipeg’s forward group is much deeper than Minnesota’s, as we can see that six Jets produced at a top-line rate compared to just three Wild players. To understand how the above results were achieved, we turn to heat maps.
Heat maps created and available on HockeyViz.com
The red areas indicate locations where a team shoots more frequently than league average, while blue is the inverse. In these maps we can see two teams who have a very different approach to generating offence. The Jets set up a triangle of attack, which results in a high volume of shots coming from the points and the mid-high slot. Being able to attack the slot with such regularity doubtlessly contributed to the success that the Jets experienced this season. The Wild, meanwhile, seem to play more on the perimeter with the goal of funneling pucks towards the crease. This explains why Minnesota produced more high-danger chances than the Jets despite generating less total scoring chances.
The offence matchup clearly favours Winnipeg. The Jets have the top-end firepower and the depth to roll scoring threats on every line. Throw in a dangerous power play, and the Jets are dangerous enough to make life miserable for anyone attempting to contain them.
Defensive Matchup
Winnipeg Jets:
Josh Morrissey – Jacob Trouba
Joe Morrow – Dustin Byfuglien
Ben Chiarot – Tyler Myers
Minnesota Wild:
Jonas Brodin – Matthew Dumba
Carson Soucy – Jared Spurgeon
Nick Seeler – Nate Prosser
The Winnipeg Jets allowed 216 goals in 2017/18, with 144 coming at even strength, while Minnesota allowed 229 goals (144 at 5v5). Winnipeg gave up an average of 31.9 shots per game, while Minnesota surrendered 31.3 on average. In terms of possession metrics, Winnipeg controlled 51.42% of shot attempts over the course of the 2017/18 season, good for 10th in the league, while Minnesota sits 29th with only 47.17% of shot attempts.
Comparing the top pairing defencemen for both teams using HERO charts:
http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/2017/05/hero-charts-player-evaluation-tool.html
The Minnesota Wild’s defence corps has taken a significant blow going into the postseason with the loss of number 1 defenseman Ryan Suter, who logged an average of 26:46 minutes of ice time per game before suffering a season-ending ankle injury on March 31. Veteran defender Jared Spurgeon remains a game-time decision due to an injured hamstring. The burden to cover these minutes will fall squarely on the shoulders of young defensemen Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba, who will be counted on in key defensive situations. The Winnipeg Jets boast a tough lineup of physical defencemen, including Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers, who will look to shut down the Wild’s top offensive lines. The Winnipeg Jets have the edge when it comes to top-tier defencemen, as well as much stronger depth on the blueline overall.
Finally, let’s compare the heat maps for both Winnipeg and Minnesota in their own defensive zones.
Heat maps created and available on HockeyViz.com
Taking a look at these maps, both teams are effectively limiting the number of scoring chances from high-danger scoring areas around the net (<25 feet) and in the slot. Minnesota’s heat map clearly indicates that the majority of chances are coming from the point (>40 feet out from the net) and down the right side, a potential weakness that Winnipeg’s quick wingers will look to exploit. Winnipeg’s defence is managing to limit almost all chances from high-scoring areas directly in front of their net, keeping the majority of shot attempts to the outside perimeter of the rink.
Goaltending Matchup:
We close our positional matchups by considering goaltending. Winnipeg will rely on Connor Hellebuyck, who broke out this year to post the winningest season ever by an American goalie. The young upstart will go toe to toe with Devan Dubnyk, the waiver-wire reclamation project that Minnesota has turned into a competent starter. Dubnyk has the qualitative advantage of playoff experience, but let’s see how the numbers stack up.
Unless otherwise specified, the above percentages reflect even-strength play. We see that Hellebuyck and Dubnyk performed similarly at even strength, as their save percentages for low, medium and high danger shots are all within a single percentage point. Where we see a difference, however, is on the special teams. While these stats are influenced by the quality of special team units, we see that Hellebuyck has significantly outperformed Dubnyk on both power plays and penalty kills. We also see that Hellebuyck saved about 2 goals more than expected given the quality of the shots being faced, whereas Dubnyk was over 7 goals in the hole on this metric.
If there had to be a choice between the two to start a Game 7, Connor Hellebuyck would be a safe choice. Despite his inexperience, his exceptional season played a huge role in Winnipeg’s ascension to 2nd place in the NHL’s overall standings. He’s shown to be better than Dubnyk at stopping the puck, and for that reason, he gives his team a better chance to win.
In summary, the numbers indicate that Winnipeg has the advantage in terms of offense, defense, and goaltending. The Jets enter the playoffs on an absolute tear, having won 11 of their last 12 games. They are 3-1-0 vs. the Wild in their season series. We are predicting that the Winnipeg Jets will be victorious in their first-round series against the Minnesota Wild, likely in 5 or 6 games.